James Mann has authored a book entitled The China Fantasy: How Our Leaders Explain Away Chinese Repression, in which he examines our foreign policy towards China, and what it could or should be.  BTW, I don’t think he’s a conservative, noting his previous book Rise of the Vulcans: The History of Bush’s War Cabinet.

You can hear him talk about the subject at the University Channel Podcast.  In the talk, he discusses three possible scenarios for China’s future, given our current approach, which is to FAIL to demand human rights reforms, hoping economic trade will change China.  He mentions that this approach to Russia really didn’t work, and today they are just as oppressive as before.

  • Soothing – Human rights improvements will come according to our current policy, buoyed by economic prosperity
  • Upheaval – something’s gonna blow – banking system problems, labor strikes (See The Coming Collapse of China as an example of this argument)
  • WYSIWYG – nothing will change in government, even if economics have changed (Mann thinks this is the most probable outcome)