John McCain’s Conservative Problem
John McCain scored a huge victory in yesterday’s Virginia Republican primary winning nearly 51% of the vote and defeating Mike Huckabee by a double-digit margin. But a closer look at the results reveals McCain’s biggest weakness: his inability to win conservative voters.
McCain won the primary by over 50,000 votes. However, when you look at the individual city and county results McCain’s problems are immediately obvious to anyone who is familiar with the state’s demographics.
Mike Huckabee won in more rural and suburban counties which are
the more conservative areas of the state. McCain won the larger cities
and urban counties that traditionally lean more towards Democratic
candidates. Even though McCain won a big victory8 he still did not do
well in traditionally Republican areas.
the more conservative areas of the state. McCain won the larger cities
and urban counties that traditionally lean more towards Democratic
candidates. Even though McCain won a big victory8 he still did not do
well in traditionally Republican areas.
Virginia has
voted Republican in every presidential election since 1952. However,
this year may be the year that Virginia turns blue. Consider this: the
last two governors of Virginia have been Democrats (Mark Warner and
current governor Tim Kaine). The last time Virginia elected a senator
they picked Democrat Jim Webb over incumbent Republican George Allen.
This year, long-time Republican senator John Warner (a RINO in every
sense of the term, by the way) will retire and the aforementioned Mark
Warner is a heavy favorite to win his seat over former Republican
governor and one-time presidential candidate Jim Gilmore.
voted Republican in every presidential election since 1952. However,
this year may be the year that Virginia turns blue. Consider this: the
last two governors of Virginia have been Democrats (Mark Warner and
current governor Tim Kaine). The last time Virginia elected a senator
they picked Democrat Jim Webb over incumbent Republican George Allen.
This year, long-time Republican senator John Warner (a RINO in every
sense of the term, by the way) will retire and the aforementioned Mark
Warner is a heavy favorite to win his seat over former Republican
governor and one-time presidential candidate Jim Gilmore.
Unless McCain can figure out a way to get the conservative
Republican base behind him, he’ll have a hard time winning Virginia. If
he cannot win Virginia, he won’t be able to win the White House no
matter who the Democrats decide to nominate.
Republican base behind him, he’ll have a hard time winning Virginia. If
he cannot win Virginia, he won’t be able to win the White House no
matter who the Democrats decide to nominate.
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I agree with your analysis. I lived in Virgina for 15 years. Should McCain pick Huck as his running mate? If not, I'd like to know who he should pick in order to try to draw evangelical votes. BTW, Gilmore only won the governorship because he promised no car tax. He never came through and was a disappointment to many Virginians on that score.
Having said that, I was dumbfounded with Obama's 64% to 36% victory over Clinton in VA. WOW! The demographics in VA are changing fast!
just heard … Condi a possible VP?
this is the type of conservative move that we are talking about, plus the all important question this political season of race and gender are answered in one fell swoop and brings tons of smarts and professionalism to the ticket.
it does not have to be a pastor or preacher, but it does have to be a Conservative as a choice at VP.
Not going to happen. She's too easily associated with Bush and his "policies."
we shall see. it seems to me that HRC's negatives will pull her down like an anchor around her neck, no matter who she runs with. She is still Hil.
BO, for all his atmospheric gibberish, will have to defend his positions at some point. that will not be easy when every other word can not be hope or change.
Those who he is having trouble with, the Conservatives, know that Condi would be a great choice, in my opinion.
"BO, for all his atmospheric gibberish, will have to defend his positions at some point."
McCain Discusses Global Warming
Either McCain will have to "Flip-Flop" and renege or he agrees with Barak Obama about the "atmospheric gibberish." Personally, I think he'll flop and give in.
As I see it, the problem with McCain choosing a VP is he can choose a moderate, which will further alienate the "red necks" who have been voting for Huckabee in the bible belt or he can choose a neo-con who will alienate all the moderate Republicans and independents who have been sustaining him so far. Choose your poison, John.
i did not mean atmospheric literally. i meant more in the general sense that his speeches contain nothing substantive and rely on taking his young fans on a roller coaster pot pourri of golden language.
with this crowd of way left dem nominees, the “neo-cons” may have become the moderates me thinks. the neo’s want to kick some islamo butt, a prospect that excites the Huckabeen-like supporters … so …
"i meant more in the general sense that his speeches contain nothing substantive"
Ah, you must buy into listening to Hillary's rhetoric, or McCain's. I can't tell because they both have the same strategy in attacking the person who they perceive has the most momentum, Barak Obama. Of course, it's all just politics and nothing more.
"…a roller coaster pot pourri of golden language."
Something Bush, and McCain for that matter, could never do. They would if they had the intelligence and/or charisma. But they don't. :(
"…the "neo-cons" may have become the moderates me thinks."
Methinks the Neo-Cons don't want McCain because he is too liberal for their tastes. So, they continue to vote for Huckabee in protest, even though it's a lost cause. There will be no Neo-Con to replace their retarded leader next term. Conservatives will just have to reconcile themselves to voting for John McCain, who is a good man, but not a true conservative. With McCain's nomination, in a way, the Democrats have already won.
This assertion that Obama has nothing concrete to offer is a myth. Check here for a refutation of that stance.
This assertion that Obama has nothing concrete to offer is a myth. Check here for a refutation of that stance.
I read that article. Actually, I have read most of the coverage on Obama. There is no doubt that he is a terrific orator with some fantastic speech writers behind him. However, a terrific orator does not make him an experienced leader. Period.
I am sure he will get the nomination, but when it is all said and done, I fear that if he assumes the presidency he will only get 1/8 of what he has promised to do in his speeches done. That will be a huge disappointment to many. I liken his candidacy to a light beer…rhetoric tastes great, specifics and experience, less filling.
The old phrase from the 50's comes to mind when I think of his voting record, "Duck and Cover." He's no better than a supreme court nominee that has no judicial record (regardless of their stance conservative or liberal).
At least with the other candidates, I can clearly see a voting record pattern…even with a McCain.
McCain's VP choice is going to be interesting. I don't see Condi Rice getting the nomination frankly. Stanford University is already playing the Dialing for Dollars dance to get her back on staff again at the Hoover Institution. Given the 8 years of Bush, it would be the smart move for her to go the route of Kissinger and be the foreign policy statesman. Within 2 election cycles should could make a bid on her own.
No, honestly, I see the VP nomination coming from within the party and probably from one of the fallen presidential candidates this cycle. You gotta' remember, a VP and President don't have to like each other to be in the same administration. No, the choice will be made to unite the party not to make friends.
BO is a figment of the lefts imagination.
a case for Condi:
Rice brings foreign policy experience that can’t be matched by any of the front-runners of either party. fluent in Russian, she holds a Ph.D. in international studies and is an expert in soviet military affairs. not a bad resume item in an era when Putin is so busy flexing his muscles that he can’t seem to keep his shirt on. and now the Kosovo question. and the eastern europe missile shield. and … who knows what else will happen tomorrow.
ah, a pres in BO with no experience, while the world catches fire … well we gets what we pay for …
a former provost of Stanford University, she also served as national security adviser during W Bush’s first term. since becoming secretary of state, she’s busied herself trying to advance democracies in the middle east and, recently, getting Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to sit down together, a endeavor worth the effort i think. exactly what is needed now.
but i can see where the cash and the crap hole that the world is shaping into would drive a thinking person out of politics and back into the University seen.
How about McCain Lieberman?
I hope that was in jest.
I do not agree with you. Yes, McCain is more MODERATE than most Republicans in Virginia; however, he is no George McGovern, Democrat. I believe he has a good chance in Virginia. You must remember that Mark Warner, although a Democrat in Name, is in fact a Republican-Lite. I will not vote for Senator Obama and I am an erstwhile Democrat. I am now an Independent-Democrat and vote for Mark Warner for Senator; however, I will vote McCain for President.
Charles E. Miller, BA, MA, Religious Centrist
"I am now an Independent-Democrat and vote for Mark Warner for Senator; however, I will vote McCain for President." –>
Welcome to the fight!
May I ask, is it a matter of you seeing McC as the less of two evils, or do you see, as I am hearing more people say, that McCain has a message that is starting to resonate?
As a side: The league of Democracies thought that he has introduced. Not necessarily a "new" idea true, but France and England has shown interest, plus the burgeoning democracies in Eastern Europe. I find it intriguing.
Revatio.
Revatio. Fda revatio.